A joint economic study produced by the Westchester County Association (WCA) and the Regional Plan Association (RPA) says that if Westchester fails to address its growing shortfall in housing it could lose from 8,400 to 12,000 jobs annually, lose from $333 million to $742 million in annual earnings and lose from $32 billion to $57 billion in Gross Domestic Product by 2040.
The study was unveiled at the WCA’s Annual Real Estate Summit held at the Westchester Country Club in Rye.
“This report confirms what we’ve been sounding the alarm about: housing isn’t just a social issue — it’s an economic one,” said Michael N. Romita, president and CEO of the WCA. “With support from our county government over the past few years, Westchester has made great progress on housing. If we want Westchester to remain competitive, if we want to support our workforce and fuel the incredible momentum we’re seeing in sectors like health care, we must prioritize smart, sustainable housing development.”
One of the speakers at the event was Westchester County Executive Ken Jenkins. He said that the report clearly demonstrates that more conversations are needed on housing to keep Westchester moving forward.
“Westchester County understands that there is a real, critical need for more housing opportunities if we want to move in tandem with the development that has been occurring across the economic sector,” Jenkins said. “Our recent investments in housing align with our long-term strategy to address housing needs, and provide stability for families who are looking to build their futures here.”
Kate Slevin, executive vice president of the RPA, said, “Our research shows that progress has been made to create more homes in walkable, transit oriented neighborhoods, but more must be done to address the county’s historically low vacancy rate.” She said that RPA was proud to work with WCA on the report.
The report revealed that Westchester currently is short more than 21,000 housing units, with vacancy rates at a historic low of 1.9% and average rents up 46% over the last decade. Without policy changes and local action, the report said, that deficit could grow to as many as 77,000 units by 2040. The report highlights the long-term costs of just maintaining the status quo while covering the significant upside of investing in new housing. Pro-housing policies, the study notes, would generate tens of thousands of jobs, expand the tax base, and support vibrant, inclusive communities.
The report noted that Westchester County’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2023 was approximately $90.2 billion. For the years 2024 through 2040, it is projected to add up to about $1.68 trillion, assuming a nominal 2% annual growth rate, with the real estate and construction sector contributing an estimated $166.6 billion. In a scenario where there is high growth of housing that adds 112,712 units, the sector’s cumulative contribution could rise to about $223.4 billion or 13.3% of county GDP.
The research was authored by RPA’s Director of Land Use Marcel Negret, Vice President of Housing and Neighborhood Planning Moses Gates and Research Intern Husen Kharodawala.
WCA has long advocated for increasing the housing stock and has a Real Estate Task Force, which brings together developers, planners, business leaders, attorneys, public officials, higher education institutions and nonprofits.
William Cuddy, who is executive vice president of the real estate services firm CBRE and also serves as chair of the WCA Real Estate Task Force, said, “WCA’s partnership with the RPA reinforces our commitment to data-driven solutions. The analysis compellingly establishes that the delivery of housing in Westchester County is needed and accretive. We’re excited to publish and share our findings today with the civic-minded decision-makers who will move the needle.”
The program featured a panel of industry leaders who discussed the impact of the growth in health care services on real estate in Westchester. Moderated by Patricia Simone, president of Simone Development Companies, the discussion featured Joshua Ratner of WMCHealth; Vaughn Ratchford of New York Blood Center Enterprises; Joshua Strugatz of White Plains Hospital; and Joseph A. Ienuso of New York-Presbyterian.